Daily Broke: Twins (+120) vs. Angels

On the list of things I’m not fond of doing, putting money on Carl Pavano ranks somewhere between getting a root canal and getting a lap dance from Rosie O’Donnell. So you know if I’m recommending Pavano and the Twins tonight, I must have a very compelling reason. And here it is: Last time I checked, you can’t win a baseball game if you can’t score a run. And the Angels can’t score runs in general (last night’s 5-0 loss in Minnesota was the seventh time they’ve been shutout in 31 games), and they absolutely cannot score when Ervin Santana pitches. Literally. Get this: In Santana’s last five trips to the mound, the Halos have been outscored 24-0. I repeat: 24-0! Throw in a 7-3 loss to the Royals in Santana’s season debut, and it’s Opponents 31, Angels 3 when the veteran right-hander has taken the ball this season. Wait, it gets better: Since September, Los Angeles has lost 10 straight games that Santana has started, plating a total of 14 runs.

Back to Pavano: He’s been decent in his last four starts (3.91 ERA); he’s actually been a workhorse for the Twins, pitching at least six innings in 10 straight starts and 16 of his last 17; and he’s pitched into the seventh inning in six of his last eight starts against the Angels, with his teams going 6-2 (including Minnesota’s 6-5 home victory back on April 11). Give Pavano a shot tonight … just keep the bottle of Scotch nearby.

Rating: ★ ★ ☆ ☆

Tuesday’s Result: Yankees (-115) vs. Rays (W)

Record: 2-1