Daily Broke: Marlins (-125) vs. Rockies

If you’ve yet to place your bet on Colorado’s Jim Tracy being the first manager fired in 2012, you might want to do so ASAP, because Tracy doesn’t seem long for the Rockies’ bench. After a miserable 2011 season when the Rockies went from chic pick to win the NL West to 73-89 and 21 games out of first place, Tracy’s squad is off to a 15-26 start this year. That .366 winning percentage is third-worst in the big leagues, trailing only the Cubs (.357) and Twins (.341). And since May 3, the Rockies are 3-14, having lost their last five in a row.

Conversely, the Marlins have turned it on in May, posting a 15-5 record. Tonight, Ozzie Guillen
hands the ball to the often-erratic Ricky Nolasco (4-2, 4.10 ERA). The right-hander is coming off two bad outings (10 runs allowed in 8 2/3 innings), and he hasn’t particularly enjoyed his team’s sparkling new ballpark (going 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA in three starts in South Beach). However, he’s had the Rockies’ number in his career, going 5-1 in six starts. In those five wins, Nolasco has delivered five quality starts, allowing just nine runs in 38 innings (2.13 ERA) while pitching exactly eight innings four times. As for Nolasco’s counterpart—Colorado right-hander Juan Nicasio—all you need to know is the Rockies are 1-6 in his last seven road starts, and they’ve lost his last six starts as an underdog. Cheap price to lay with the better team at home. Looks like the perfect time for my first four-star play.

Rating: ★ ★ ★ ★

Monday’s Result: 76ers (+5½) at Celtics (Loss) 

Record: 7-5