Neither one of these teams has been worth much of an investment lately, in large part because
neither is hitting (the Red Sox have dropped seven of nine, scoring three runs or fewer six times; the Marlins have lost seven of eight, scoring two runs or fewer in six of those contests). Throw in the fact that the two starting pitchers tonight—Boston’s Felix Doubront (6-3, 4.34 ERA) and Florida’s Ricky
Nolasco (6-5, 4.36)—have near-identical numbers, and you can understand why this is a pick-’em line. Here’s the rub, though: Those pitching stats are deceiving.
Dig deeper and you’ll find that while Nolasco has been strong on the road (4-1, 3.35), the right-hander has not gotten comfortable in his team’s brand-spanking-new ballpark (2-3, 5.56). On the other hand, the southpaw Doubront has been far better on the road (4-1, 3.31) than he has been at Fenway Park (2-2, 5.52). And note this: Boston’s offense has been decent against right-handed pitching this year (.263 team average), but the Fish have foundered against lefties (batting .228). And while the Sox are 16-13 on the road (including 5-1 when Doubront pitches), the Marlins are playing .500 ball in their new park (17-17, including 3-3 behind Nolasco).
Rating: ★ ★ ☆ ☆
Tuesday’s Result: Thunder -5 vs. Heat (Win)