Daily Bet: Padres-Rockies OVER 11½

Time to complete the perfect week—I’m 4-for-4 after last night’s underdog winner on the Mets—by riding a streak that’s hotter than GQ’s latest cover image (Google it; just trust me on this). Since May 19, there have been 19 games played at Coors Field. Here are some of the final scores: 10-3, 6-4, 9-7, 7-6, 13-5, 11-5, 13-3, 11-5, 10-8, 8-5, 10-8, 8-2, 12-5, 11-5 and (yesterday) 11-10. Of those 15 games, 13 went over the total, one stayed under the total and one pushed. In fact, since April 7, the over is 21-8-2 at Coors Field.

Yeah, I know that Stevie Wonder would probably bat cleanup in San Diego’s weak lineup. I also know ol’ Stevie would probably go 3-for-5 tonight, not only because the ball is jumping in Denver’s rarified air, but also because he’d be facing Jeff Francis. The journeyman lefty has made four starts since rejoining his old teammates, and he’s allowed 15 runs, 29 hits and four walks in just 18 2/3 innings. In two starts at home, Francis has surrendered 10 runs in 8 1/3 innings. And in four starts against the Padres over exactly two years, he’s allowed 16 earned runs in 16 innings (all four contests topped the total).

The only possible way this game doesn’t hurdle the number is if San Diego’s Jason Marquis continues to pitch like Justin Verlander. Since the Padres acquired him earlier this month, Marquis has posted a 2.05 ERA in four starts. But here’s the rub: Three of those games were at home in Petco Park, and the other was in Seattle’s Safeco Field, two of most pitcher-friendly venues in all of baseball. What’s more, three of those four starts were against the Mariners (twice) and Giants, two weak-hitting outfits. Tonight he faces a Rockies offense that has produced 38 runs in its last six games.

Rating: ★ ★ ★ ☆

Thursday’s Result: Mets (+120) vs. Dodgers (Win) 

Record: 20-18 



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