Daily Bet: Royals (-125) vs. Mariners

Now 10-2 with my last 12 selections after the miracle in D.C. last night, as the Nationals gave up three runs in the ninth to fall behind 3-2, tied the game in the bottom of the ninth, fell behind again 4-3 in the 10th, only to score two in the bottom half of the inning for the walk-off 5-4 victory. As they say, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. Tonight, it’s off to Kansas City for what seems like a risky play on the Royals. K.C. has lost three in a row (including the first two games of this series to the Mariners by a combined score of 18-10), seven of eight and 12 of 15. And tonight the Royals give the ball to a pitcher (Bruce Chen) who has given up six runs in each of his last three starts (posting an 11.85 ERA with K.C. losing all three games).

So why lay this price? Because I don’t trust Seattle to win three straight road games (something it has done just twice this season). Also, I love Chen’s career numbers against the Mariners (4-0, 2.73 ERA, including allowing just three runs in 21 2/3 innings over his last three starts vs. the M’s—all victories). Additionally, while Seattle’s Kevin Millwood has pitched very well this season, he doesn’t have much to show for it. In fact, the Mariners are 2-6 in his last eight outings (losing the last four in a row), and in those eight contests Seattle has scored two runs or fewer six times.
Finally, not only do the Mariners rarely win three straight road games, they rarely win three straight games, period — the last time they had such a positive run was a four-game winning streak from May 18-21.

Rating: ★ ★ ☆ ☆

Tuesday’s Result: Nationals (-120) vs. Mets (Win)

Record: 26-20