Daily Bet: Twins (+170) at Red Sox

The only thing in Boston uglier than the women and Bill Belichick’s wardrobe is Jon Lester’s 2012 statistics. Check it out: The Red Sox southpaw is 5-8 with a 5.49 ERA overall, and his team is 8-13 when he pitches this season, including 3-7 in his last 10 outings. Wait, it gets worse: In his
last four starts, Lester has allowed 26 runs (25 earned) in 18 1/3 innings (that’s a 12.27 ERA), and in his last three trips to the mound, he’s given up seven home runs in 14 innings. Wait, I’m not done yet. Here’s what Lester has done at Fenway Park this season: 12 starts, 2-6 record, 7.39 ERA, 12 home runs, 93 hits and 24 walks allowed in 67 innings. Boston’s record in those 12 games: 3-9, including 1-6 since Memorial Day. Oh, but I’m sure he owns the Twins in his career, right? Uh, no. In nine appearances (eight starts), Lester is 1-3 with a 4.96 ERA. In his last two starts vs. the Twins (one this year, one last year), Lester gave up nine runs, 14 hits and nine walks in 14 1/3 innings (5.65 ERA).

In other words, why the hell not take a shot with the Twins at this generous price? Especially given the way rookie Samuel Deduno has pitched since being put into the rotation right before the All-Star break. In four starts, the right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.13 ERA, and his last three outings he’s given up just five earned runs in 17 2/3 innings (2.55 ERA)—with Minnesota winning all three games. True, the Twins are only playing .500 ball over their last 16 games (8-8) … but Boston is just 5-7 in its last 12 games (and 6-8 in its last 14 at Fenway Park).

Rating: ★ ★ ☆ ☆

Wednesday’s Result: Rangers (-1½ runs, +115) vs. Angels (Loss)

Record: 29-23