Daily Bet: Bengals-Ravens OVER 41½

If you watched the NFL’s 13 games yesterday—not to mention Wednesday’s opener between the Cowboys and Giants—you saw one constant: more flags than at an Olympic opening ceremony. Apparently, the NFL’s replacement refs are operating under a pay-for-penalty contract. Or they’re blind. Or they’re incompetent. Or all three. As a result of all the flags—many of which were field-shifting pass-interference calls—along with 37 interceptions, we saw final scores of 40-24, 40-32, 34-13, 27-23, 48-28, 41-21, 26-23, 30-22 and 31-19. Of the 14 games completed to date, 11 of them featured at least 40 combined points—and nine of those had at least 47 points.

Which brings me to this over selection on the Bengals-Ravens contest: How do you not just blindly take a shot when 79 percent of the games played so far have had at least 40 points (and nearly 65 percent went for at least 47 points)?  Now, before you say “But this is an AFC North clash between two defensive-minded squads,” understand that in two meetings last year, Baltimore
posted wins of 31-24 and 24-16. Both games cleared the total (after the under hit in six of the previous seven head-to-head clashes). In fact, the over went 11-5 for the Bengals last year (5-1 in AFC North games) and 10-6 for Baltimore (five of the Ravens’ last seven division games have gone over).

(Note: I went 4-2 with my Going for Broke NFL selections yesterday, and have one more recommendation on tonight’s Raiders-Chargers contest.) 

Rating: ★ ★ ☆ ☆

Friday’s Result: Florida (PK) at Texas A&M (Win)

Record: 42-36