Let’s play a little “by the numbers” game to explain the rationale for playing tonight’s Denver-Atlanta clash over the total:
30. Number of times a team has scored at least 30 points in the first two weeks of the NFL season.
15. Number of teams that scored at least 27 points in Sunday’s 14 NFL games.
8. Number of NFL games so far that have featured at least 59 combined points.
42. Percentage of NFL games that have featured at least 50 combined points.
55. Percentage of NFL games that have gone “Over” the total.
31-19. Final score of the Broncos’ victory over the Steelers last week.
40-24. Final score of the Falcons’ victory at the Chiefs last week.
Look, I understand that we’re getting the worst of the number here (this total opened at 51 and will likely continue to rise throughout the day). I also understand that betting the over in a Monday Night Football game is a square play. But it was just as much of a square play last Monday night when I hit the over in the Ravens-Bengals contest. And that was played outdoors with quarterbacks named Flacco and Dalton. Tonight’s game is being played indoors with quarterbacks named Ryan and Manning. And from the For What it’s Worth Department: Both Atlanta and Denver have topped the total in five of their last six games dating to last season.
Oh, and one more thing: I went 8-3 with my first 11 Going for Broke selections in this week’s issue of Vegas Seven, including 5-0 in the NFL. The 12th and final play? Broncos-Falcons over the total.
Rating: ★ ★ ☆ ☆
Friday’s Result: Washington State-UNLV UNDER 55 (Loss)