Daily Bet: Seahawks (+3) vs. Packers

Just when you think you’ve got the NFL all figured out, the Vikings pummel the 49ers (the Super Bowl darling of many); the Chiefs, who gave up 75 points in the first two weeks, hold Drew Brees and the Saints to 24 in a wild come-from-behind 27-24 overtime win in New Orleans; the Raiders, who looked as inept as ever in losses to the Chargers and Dolphins to begin the season, rally from 10 points down to upset the Steelers; the Titans, who looked only slightly less inept than the Raiders in starting out 0-2, squander a two-touchdown lead in 18 seconds, and yet find a way to stun the Lions in overtime.

In all, underdogs went 11-4 against the spread on Sunday, including nine outright upsets. That’s enough to get me to grab the field goal with Seattle tonight—particularly since the Seahawks, in my opinion, have the biggest home-crowd advantage in the NFL. And you know that crowd is going to be especially juiced up on a Monday night.

What about the fact Aaron Rodgers pilots one of the most explosive offenses in the league, you ask? My answer: Um, do you have any idea how dominant Seattle’s defense has been lately? In last week’s 27-7 ass-kicking of the Cowboys, the Seahawks held Dallas to just 296 total yards, including 49 rushing yards. Over the past eight games dating to Week 10 of last year, Seattle is allowing just 16 points per game, and no team has scored more than 23 points against the Seahawks in the last 11 games.

Yeah, Green Bay spanked Chicago 23-10 in Week 2, but that game was played 11 days ago (and it was gift-wrapped by Jay Cutler). And get this: Since starting out last season 5-1 ATS, the Packers are just 7-6 ATS (2-3 ATS on the road), covering in consecutive contests just once during this stretch. On the other hand, the Seahawks are on a 10-5-1 ATS roll (9-3-1 ATS as an underdog), including 6-3 ATS at home (5-2 ATS as a home underdog). They’re also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Monday night games.

Rating: ★ ★ ☆ ☆

Friday’s Result: Orioles (+110) at Red Sox (Win)

Record: 49-39