Daily Bet: Bears-Cowboys UNDER 41½

Just when I thought the dreaded missed PAT was going to doom Saturday’s play on Utah State, the Aggies’ defense came through with a (seemingly) meaningless safety to steal a winner. To recap: Utah State, laying 21 points, scored a touchdown with 11:50 remaining to take a 33-13 lead over UNLV, but the kicker missed the extra point. Some six minutes later, though, Rebels QB Nick Sherry took a sack at the 1-yard line, and on the next play, running back Tim Cornett was tackled in the end zone to make it 35-13, and UNLV never threatened to score from there. In addition to the lucky winner on Utah State, I went 5-1 with my Going for Broke college football selections, making for a very nice Saturday. What about NFL results from Sunday, you ask? Um, yeah, we won’t go there.

Tonight, it’s off to big D for this Cowboys-Bears clash. With Jay Cutler (six INTs) and Tony Romo (three INTs, two fumbles) treating the football like a piece of plutonium, I’m not touching the side in this contest. The under, on the other hand, should be easy money—particularly because those two QBs are treating the football like a piece of plutonium. Think about it: If you’re Cowboys coach Jason Garrett or Bears coach Lovie Smith, do you risk digging yourself a hole by letting your mistake-prone QBs chuck it all over the lot, or do you go conservative and hand the ball off to a couple of trusted RBs (Chicago’s Matt Forte and Dallas’ DeMarco Murray)?

Of the six combined games these teams have played, five have stayed under the total, with those five ending in scores of 24-17, 27-7, 16-10, 23-10 and 23-6. Defensively, the Cowboys are allowing just 18 points per contest and they lead the league in both total defense (250 yards per game) and passing defense (137 ypg), while Chicago’s D ranks fifth in points allowed (16.7 ppg), fourth in total yards allowed (279 ypg), fourth in rushing (76 ypg), seventh in passing (203 ypg) and tied for third in sacks (14), just three behind leader Cincinnati, which played yesterday.

Finally, the under is 7-3 in Chicago’s last 10 road games, 6-0 in Dallas’ last six overall, 5-2 in Dallas’ last seven at home and 7-1 in the eight weekday NFL games (Thursday and Monday night) played so far. Final score: 17-13. Who wins? Who cares?

Rating:★ ★ ★ ★

Saturday’s Result: Utah State (-21) vs. UNLV (Win)

Record: 52-41