Daily Bet: Texans (-9) at Jets

Let’s start with a disclaimer: I’d trust Michael Vick to not drop an infant before I’d trust my NFL opinion right now. After beginning Week 5 with an easy Thursday night Daily Bet winner on the Rams over the Cardinals, I stunk it with Sunday, losing four of six Going for Broke selections, including brilliant recommendations on the Titans (who lost 30-7 in Minnesota), Ravens (who were
favored by six points at Kansas City and didn’t score a touchdown) and Browns (who jumped out to a 14-0 at the Giants, only to get outscored 41-13 the rest of the way). And this follows last week’s 2-4-1 NFL effort. Of course, I could salvage the week if the Texans—my top Going for Broke play—do what they should do, which is crush the shitty Jets like (the old) Rex Ryan would crush a plate of nachos.

Not only does Houston come into this game as one of two remaining undefeated teams, but it has covered the number in all four games—and covered easily, with three double-digit wins over the Dolphins (30-10), Jaguars (27-7) and Titans (38-14) and a misleading narrow win over the Broncos (31-25; the Texans led 31-11 in the fourth quarter). I’ll go ahead and do the math for you: Through four games, it’s Texans 126, opponents 56 (including 76-21 in the first half). On the other hand, the Jets started the year with a 48-28 rout of the Bills (which, by the way, is your clubhouse leader for NFL Fluke of the Year); in three games since, they’ve produced a total of 33 points, including a giant bagel in last week’s 34-0 loss the 49ers.

What do the 49ers and Texans have in common? A violent, turnover-forcing defense. What do they not have in common? A prolific, well-balanced offense (San Francisco is improving in this department, but the Texans are far more complete offensively).

The Jets cannot run the ball (just 86.5 rushing yards per game and one rushing TD); they can’t pass it (two words: Mark Sanchez); they’ve lost their only offensive playmaker (Santonio Holmes) and most important defender (Darrelle Revis) to a season-ending injuries. If you include the preseason, they’ve lost nine of 11 games, averaging 10.1 points in the nine losses.

This game opened up a Texans minus-7 1/2 and is now pushing 9 1/2 in some spots. That means a lot of wise guys who are a lot wiser than me (and who are loathe to lay big points in the NFL, especially with a road team on Monday night) believe the Jets are a mess. Hey, at least if I go down tonight, I won’t go down alone.  

Rating: ★ ★ ★ ★

Friday’s Result: Rangers run-line vs. Orioles (Loss)

Record: 53-45