Mother Nature stepped in front of Wednesday’s selection on the Yankees-Tigers under 7 runs. Assuming the weather clears up today and the teams play Game 4 of the American League Championship Series, I’m sticking with the under—especially since two hot pitchers (CC Sabathia and Max Scherzer) got an extra day of rest.
Meanwhile, Week 7 of the NFL season kicks off tonight in the Bay Area, and even though my NFL opinion these days is about as useless as a calculus book in the Jersey Shore house, I’ve still got a strong opinion on this 49ers-Seahawks clash. And it’s all based on San Francisco’s ability to rebound in a big way off of losses. On Sunday, the 49ers got hammered 26-3 by the Giants, marking the sixth time since coach Jim Harbaugh took over prior to the start of last season that San Francisco has tasted defeat. One of those previous five losses came in the NFC Championship Game last year (also against the Giants); here’s what happened in the very next game after the other four: 13-8 win at Cincinnati as a 1½-point road underdog; 26-0 win over the Rams as a 14-point home favorite; 20-3 win over the Steelers as a three-point home favorite; 34-0 win over the Jets as a 3½-point road favorite.
That’s an aggregate score of 93-11. And if you want to include this year’s season opener, which “followed” last year’s NFC Championship Game loss, San Francisco won that, too, 30-22 at Green Bay as a six-point underdog. Meaning the 49ers are 5-0 SU and ATS after a loss in the Harbaugh era, winning by an average score of 18.6 points per game.
Harbaugh went 2-0 SU and ATS against his old nemesis, Seattle’s Pete Carroll, including a 33-17 home rout in last year’s season opener. That win is part of San Francisco’s 12-2-1 ATS run at home (both non-covers coming against the Giants), while the Seahawks—who are coming off a huge emotional come-from-behind upset of the Patriots—are just 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 games outside of Seattle. Finally, the Seahawks’ last three trips to San Francisco have ended in double-digit defeats (23-10, 40-21 and 33-17).
Rating: ★ ★ ★ ★
Wednesday’s Result: Yankees-Tigers UNDER 7 runs (postponed)