Confused about which way to bet Super Bowl XLVII? Well, sit back, relax … and pop an extra-strength pain reliever, because we’re about to add to your confusion. Here are seven Super Bowl betting trends as you continue to overanalyze the side and total in the Ravens-49ers matchup:
1: The favorite is 33-13 straight-up and 26-18-2 against the spread in Super Bowl history. However, the underdog is 8-3 ATS the last 11 Super Bowls, including a current 4-1 ATS run.
2: The NFC is 18-8-2 ATS in the last 28 Super Bowls, including 8-2 ATS in the last 10 and 5-0 ATS in the last five. However, since 1996, the AFC entrant has been an underdog six times and only once failed to cover the spread.
3: Favorites of 3½ to 6 points are 8-3 ATS in Super Bowls. However, the lower-seeded squad—Baltimore is a No. 4 seed; San Francisco a No. 2 seed—is 12-2 ATS the last 14 years.
4: Forget the point spread. If you can just predict the Super Bowl winner, odds are you’ll walk away with some cash, as the winner has failed to cover the spread just six times in 46 years. However, it’s happened three times since 2004.
5: This is the 10th Super Bowl to be played in New Orleans. The favorite is 6-3 SU and 5-3-1 ATS in the previous nine. However, the last time the Superdome hosted the big game, in 2002, the Patriots beat the Rams 20-17 as a 14-point underdog.
6: Six of the last eight Super Bowls overall and six of the nine Super Bowls in New Orleans have stayed under the total. However, the over is 3-1 in the last four Super Bowls in the Superdome—including San Francisco’s 55-10 win over Denver in Super Bowl XXIV. In fact, the combined total score in the 49ers’ five championship appearances is 55.4 points.
7: OK, at this point, you’re probably thinking, “Screw it: I might as well just flip a coin.” That brings us to this final tidbit: The team from the NFC has won the coin toss 17 of the last 19 years, including 14 in a row prior to the Patriots breaking the string last year. As for the heads/tails ratio, “heads” hit in five of the last six Super Bowls—including the last four in a row—but prior to that, “tails” had been on an 8-1 run. The results for all 46 Super Bowls played to date: 23 heads, 23 tails. Yup, might as well just flip that coin …